by Yorgos Mitralias
Is Trump a fascist? Obviously, say half (49%) of Americans, many of his ex-collaborators, and the overwhelming majority of his opponents, experts in fascism, and the US and international media. In short, the same people who, only yesterday, found this question shocking or inappropriate, and branded as simplistic those who dared to answer in the affirmative.
We could therefore exclaim with relief: better late than never,…if this question did not now appear rather derisory and outdated. For another question, equally taboo until recently, has also just been desacralized: that of the outbreak of civil war in today’s United States. The proof? Everyone is talking about it across the Atlantic! And what’s more, they are no longer content to just talk about the possibility of this civil war, but are beginning to focus the debate on the “modalities”, the practical consequences and the balance of power of this second North American civil war. In short, the United States is taking this eventuality very, very, very seriously, and is trying to prepare accordingly…
So let’s do the same, because the klepsydra is running out, and it’s desperately urgent. Always bearing in mind a first and inescapable truth that we already forcefully recalled more than five years ago, in an article with the eloquent title “The spectre of civil war is already haunting the United States of America !”: “we have to admit that if there’s one thing we can’t blame Trump for, it’s his inconsistency, because he has always refused to ‘calm down’, and he methodically applies his barbaric policies, while he has never forgotten to follow through on his threats…”. (1) And since Trump is doing what he promises to do, we need only recall what he has been saying day after day for a long time, to realize the enormity of the threat he represents, regardless of the outcome of the next presidential elections. For he has already promised “a bloodbath for the whole country” if he isn’t elected ! So, we’ve been warned. Just as we’re warned that once in the White House, he’ll dissolve labor unions and outlaw strikes, street protests, opponents and Democratic opposition, while he’ll deport millions of migrants (even “legal” ones) and use the armed forces to “solve” once and for all the question of what he calls “the enemy from within”! And to think that there are still people in Europe (even on the left!) who continue to waste their time wondering whether Trump is really a fascist…
And yet, even if Trump should miraculously change his mind and opt for a more peaceful approach, there are now hundreds of thousands of his supporters, armed to the teeth, fired up and determined, as they proclaim, to fight even without him. However, it goes without saying that it’s one thing to promise bloodshed and war, and quite another to actually wage it. Having reached this point, and given that according to a poll taken a few days ago, “73% of American voters say they are worried about an outbreak of political violence after the November 5 elections”, we have to ask ourselves what this “outbreak of violence” would actually look like in the aftermath of the elections.
First of all, we shouldn’t expect a repeat of the confrontation between two regular armies, as occurred during the first American Civil War in 1861. The most likely outcome, at least during the first phase of this “outbreak of violence”, would be a multiplication of more or less isolated “terrorist” acts, especially on the initiative of pro-Trump fascist “militias”, and given that 32% of Republicans recently declared they were ready “to resort to violence to save the country”. However, these acts, which could well be deadly, would be enough to create an end-of-the-world climate, prompting the various centers of power to urgently seek ways to prevent the irreparable, i.e. a civil war that would blow up the federation.
Indeed, such a prospect could only cause panic, as it would create insoluble and highly dangerous problems not only for the United States, but for the whole world. For example, by putting on the agenda not only the protection of the immediate interests of American capitalism and capitalists, but also questions such as what to do with the finances, the armed forces or – not least – the nuclear arsenal of a country divided into two camps at war with each other. So it’s not out of the question that, to avoid the worst and the irreparable, the centers of power (economic, political, military…) might agree to “freeze” the situation in order to separate the enemy camps until better days. This would be a kind of temporary “truce” that would end up roughly reproducing the map of the country at the time of its first civil war: pro-Trump southern states against anti-Trump northern ones!
In this case, it’s not at all out of the question that we might also see a phenomenon that we’ve already seen in the past in similar situations, for example in Germany in the ’20s or in Russia just after the end of the Soviet Union: a process of disintegration of the federal state, starting with the re-establishment of customs and “borders” for each of its components (states, provinces and even cities), which seek salvation by isolating themselves from others and turning in on themselves to protect themselves. In the United States, such a dynamic would quickly lead to secession, especially on the part of federal states where independence ambitions and traditions already exist.
It’s no coincidence that the threat of civil war is now rekindling these independence ambitions, and that the major American media are talking a lot about them. This is all the more true given that even leading Republican figures are currently declaring themselves in favor of “separating the red (Republican) states from the blue (Democrat) states”, that according to a recent poll “23% of Americans support secession”, and that the two main candidates for secession and independence are the heavyweights of both camps, …California and Texas!
The cases of California and Texas deserve attention not only because 29% and 31% respectively of their citizens declare themselves in favor of independence, but also because of the size of their economies: California is –for the eighth year running – the world’s fifth-largest economy, behind Germany but ahead of France, while Texas is eighth! As we wrote as long ago as April 2020, “The prospect of seeing, for example, the world’s fifth-largest economy, California, split off from the United States to become an independent state could become a reality if the crisis, Trump’s authoritarianism or the threat of widespread civil war made it untenable for this federal state, which incidentally votes overwhelmingly against Trump, to remain in the Federation. This is all the more true given that the old temptation of Californian independence is growing stronger lately, at the same time as thousands of Republican and conservative Californians are choosing to sell their homes and move elsewhere (e.g. Texas) in the United States…”(2)
In any case, there is currently so much abysmal hatred and so much willingness to fight in the United States, especially on the part of the hard-core Trumpists (30%-35% of Republicans), that it’s hard to see how the United States could avoid an outburst of violence that would resemble much a civil war. This is a grave moment not only for the world’s superpower, but for the whole world, given the international context marked by the surge of friends and clones of the North American fascist Caligula. Undoubtedly, the next few weeks will be more than critical…
Notes
1. Le spectre de la guerre civile hante déjà les États-Unis d’Amérique! : https://www.cadtm.org/Le-spectre-de-la-guerre-civile-hante-deja-les-Etats-Unis-d-Amerique
2. Trump le pyromane déjà à l’œuvre incendiant le peu qui reste de la démocratie américaine! : https://www.cadtm.org/spip.php?page=imprimer&id_article=18439